Eric Sink has recently posted a great phrase:

We're heading toward two classes of computers: one for people like me, and one for people like my Mom.

Exactly.

Apple's iPad has helped me realize something. Some day, only a couple of years from now, there will be people, who's first computer would be - an iPad.

Some day, 5-10 years from today, there will be people, who won't know what files or folders are.

What does this mean for startups, mISV's, programmers/entepreneurs? I guess - that they should forget about desktop apps in the near future. Target the Web.